Staff Directory

INTERA Personnel Publish Paper on Model Averaging Techniques for Quantifying Conceptual Model Uncertainty

INTERA staff members, Abhishek Singh, Srikanta Mishra, and Greg Ruskauff, recently published an article in Ground Water entitled, "Model Averaging Techniques for Quantifying Conceptual Model Uncertainty." The article provides a comparative assessment of various model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) used to quantify the impacts of conceptual model uncertainty on groundwater model predictions. These techniques often lead to significantly different results because of differences in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model uncertainty. The study examines the pros and cons of various model averaging techniques from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater modeling studies. Recommendations regarding the use of model averaging techniques are also provided. For more information; visit:http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122666415/abstract